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Why do models always stop at 2100?
I mean I guess they just want to be able to easily compare different models, and having the same reference point makes this slightly easier, but it might make some people forget that warming will continue after this year.
Has anyone seen a reliable model that makes predictions beyond this date?
Basically, what I’m wondering is what is the maximum warming predicted from a business as usual scenario, going as far into the future as needed? Has anyone seen this?
(Yes, this is an actual question. Yes, I’m surprised too.)
If we fail to reduce global GHG emissions, studies have shown the planet will warm in the 5-7°C range by 2100.
http://climateprogress.org/2008/12/21/hadley-study-warns-of-catastrophic-5%C2%B0c-warming-by-2100-on-current-emissions-path/
http://climateprogress.org/2009/02/23/mit-doubles-global-warming-projections/
At that point who knows what will happen. It’s warmer than the planet has been in tens of millions of years, so it’s possible that some unknown feedbacks will be triggered. It’s also possible that human civilization will be so impacted that our CO2 emissions plummet. I think projecting beyond about 2100 in this scenario simply isn’t possible.
In the scenario where we do succeed in reducing our emissions, the anthropogenic warming signal should stabilize by around 2100, so basically predictions flatline at that point. So again, there’s not much sense in projecting beyond 2100.
*edit* jim says “Studies suggest just about anything under the sun.”
I say prove it. I’m pretty tired of deniers making false unsubstantiated claims and expecting everyone to believe them because “I’m a geologist ooh la la”.
Hey, Trevor’s back!
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